D.3.1.4 Development scenarios

This document provides predictive scenarios on the development of travel demand between Italy and Croatia, as well as the related impacts in terms of GHG emissions per passenger. It is aimed at providing support on how to govern travel demand and supply between Italy and Croatia.
The scenario analysis stems from the qualitative and quantitative analysis of demand, and is a crucial input for the assessment of passengers’ carbon footprint and for the definition of a cross-border planning model.
An aspect that required particular attention in this study was the discontinuity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. In general, when it comes to forecasting travel demand between certain origins and destinations, the main reference points are represented by historical
data series and correlations between the propensity to travel and the main socio-economic and demographic parameters.
The Covid-19 pandemic has altered these flows, almost bringing them to zero and thus creating a discontinuity in the historical series. Moreover, it also had an impact on the individual determinants of travel choices (habits, perceptions, values, etc.) to such an extent as to change the reference framework on which to base the forecasts.